The journey · Chapter 0
Why model a fixture?
The project records rules, builds fixtures with the available inputs and keeps every version. It asks how closely the result resembles the real thing.
Why model a fixture?
Every AFL fixture starts arguments. Who got the Friday nights? Who travels three weeks running? Why is the Grand Final rematch in Round 1 again?
The fixture looks like one document, but hundreds of overlapping decisions sit behind it. The AFL works through drafts under time pressure, starting with the previous season’s ladder.
This site explores how to do that work openly.
What we are trying to find out
Some rules are public. The players’ collective agreement sets minimum rest breaks. The TV deal reserves certain Saturdays for pay TV. Ground contracts promise minimum game counts. Occasions such as Anzac Day, Easter Monday, King’s Birthday and Dreamtime are fixed early.
Other rules are conventions visible in past fixtures. How far apart are return games? How many Thursdays does a club usually get? Does a club go four rounds without a home game?
Our question is: if we record those rules and give a computer the available inputs, how closely does its fixture resemble the real thing?
We cannot see the commercial and club conversations behind the AFL’s decisions. We explain where those gaps limit the model. We want readers to understand which step placed a game, which rules were checked, and which could not be checked.
What “modelled” means here
A modelled fixture is one our model produced. It is not the AFL’s announced fixture. The AFL did not write or endorse it and will publish its own 2027 fixture on its own timetable.
Where a 2027 fact is unpublished, we label our assumption. Where we cannot confirm something, such as whether a ground is free, we say it is unknown. A version stays incomplete while its rules rely on assumptions or unknowns instead of sourced facts for that season.
Why keep every version
Nine releases appeared between 13 and 30 September 2026. They record corrections, new rules, alternative calendars and changes to prime-time choices.
We keep each published version unchanged, with a unique fingerprint. Each release explains what changed and why. A later human edit creates a new version and a recorded comparison with the earlier fixture.
You can explore today’s fixture or follow how it got there.
What you will find
- Rounds and clubs: 207 modelled games over 24 rounds, with dates, grounds and TV bands. Two calendars reflect the unannounced start date.
- Versions: each published release and its recorded changes.
- Rules: plain-English explanations and recorded results for each version.
- The journey: the story told by the release notes.
Where a page says not recorded, that is the available answer. We show the gap instead of guessing.